Thursday, April 12, 2007

Correction in Sight?

It seems that investors are going to see what happens with earnings before pushing the market one way or the other. Consumer confidence finally seems to be waning with recent mortgage and credit troubles. I think that earnings will still be fairly solid, and this will be the driving force to hold stocks up. Most other indicators are looking downward however. The Fed is getting concerned about inflation. The real estate and homebuilding markets still haven't shown they will turn. I'm looking for a correction to bring the Dow back near 12,000. After that, I think we will have some stability.

Looking ahead to the summer months, I think you have to stay with recent trends. Energy stocks, particularly offshore drillers, refiners, and oil services should stay strong. Metals and miners probably won't continue their torrid pace, but should still be solid. Beyond that, I don't think financial stocks will rebound until later in the year. The summer should provide some good buying opportunities for these types of stocks.

Here are a couple of financial names I would look at if we see a correction:

Capital One (COF)
Bank of America (BAC)
Goldman Sachs (GS)

Some oil related stocks to watch:

Chevron (CVX)
Schlumberger (SLB)
Transocean (RIG)
Noble (NE)
Valero (VLO)
Frontier (FTO)

Metals:
Freeport McMoRan (FCX)
Southern Copper (PCU)

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