Tuesday, April 3, 2007

Nice Rally, But Will it Hold?

Todays gains have looked pretty impressive so far. They are spanning across most sectors, aside from, believe it or not, oil. I think oil will continue its upward trend, but had to had to cool off for a day after its recent run up. Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) has finally reversed its trend and is a one percent gainer after an upgrade this morning.

I think Capital One (COF) looks like a great value here. They don't have a lot of exposure to the sub-prime area of mortgages, but is being treated like it does by Wall Street. They are a major player in the credit card industry, and are in the process of becoming a diversified bank, as it made two major acquisitions in the past year and a half. It trades at a low valuation (about 8.5x forward earnings). If it continues its quest and becomes a full scale bank, it should deserve the multiple that other banks are getting (which is 11 to 12). And if you compare it to two major credit card companies, it is especially cheap. American Express (AXP) trades at around 15x forward earning, and newly public Mastercard (MA) at 22x.

So, we'll keep on the lookout. I'm still fairly bearish on the market near term, but there are always good stocks to buy.

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