Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Some Observations

And the volatility continues... It has been something that traders can count on during the past few days. It's mostly due to the fact that there is little moving this market, and people are very unsure about how to play it. Some interesting observations:

-Blackstone (BX) is trading below its IPO price. This could be a sign that the M&A market is drying up. Also, investors aren't excited about potential tax changes that could hurt Blackstone.

-Commodities dropping; specifically oil and gold. The fed is concerned about high commodity prices and what they could do to inflation. This could affect their decision on rates.

-The housing market continues to look weak nationwide. There are still some strong pockets, but the major markets are seeing some decline.

-Mortgage and credit issues could be of most importance if rates are raised. Banks are going to be looking for their money and if rates are higher, it could cause trouble.

One thing to remember is that we are now operating on almost a completely global market, with many key players. This carries a lot of significance and changes in other countries need to be regarded with more weight.

An interesting article from Bloomberg regarding the Chinese market can be read here.

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