Monday, January 7, 2008

Monday's Action

Shares have struggled to hold onto gains this morning. The media has basically proclaimed we're already in a recession. So I have to ask a couple of questions:

Can we have a bad bear market if everyone calls it ahead of time? Doesn't it take euphoria to over price stocks in order for them to have been overvalued enough to fall that much?

If $100/barrel oil is going to sink the economy, what if oil pulls back to $70/barrel? Still a recession?

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying there are not risks right now. There are a lot of them. But when I look at the people speaking up right now, saying how much we'll drop, they are mostly gold bulls who have been making the same argument for the past 5 years, and now someone will listen to them.

There are risks out there. It is a great time to evaluate or re-position your portfolio to account for those risks, but don't overreact. Don't lose sight of the bigger picture. Have a great day!

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