Monday, February 4, 2008

Quite an Upset

The Super Bowl turned out quite surprising, with the Giants pulling off the big upset. Will this help the markets? Well, it will put people in New York in a good mood, but beyond that, I don't see a connection. I see the market struggling to find direction for a little while. Corporate earnings will give us the most data now. I think the theory of "slower growth in the first half of 2008, and picking up later in the year" is starting to look like what may be happening.

In earnings calls, the executives appear to be bracing for a US slowdown, and thus are keeping expectations lower. This helps investors believe it or not. The multinationals are also saying there is no sign of an overseas slowdown, which is also positive. Keep in mind that the US is only 25% of the world market, which is less than in previous years. So if the rest of the world is doing well, its likely to hold our market up rather than the US drag the world market down. When the US market was 1/3 or more of the global economy, it had a bigger effect. As investors we have to look at the big picture now more than ever.

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