Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Bears Running Out of Ammo

It is a little funny to watch all the bearish analysts/media types change their tune. First it was, "just wait, multiple banks or brokerages will collapse." Then it was, "just wait, earnings will horrible, estimates too high, etc." Then it was, "just wait, GDP will show we're in a recession." To quote Judge Smails from Caddyshack, "Well, we're waiting!"

The Fed might surprise us today, but its doubtful. You don't want to do much trading ahead of the Fed, because anything can happen.

I do think the consumer is weakening substantially, but it might not spill over into the stock market like many have predicted. The market might tread water or advance while waiting for the consumer. Then again, this could just be a bear market rally. But after today, there won't be a lot of negative or positive catalysts, and we may be range bound for awhile.

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