Friday, April 18, 2008

Various Thoughts/Who Can Believe Analysts?

Quite a bit happening this morning. First off, you have the huge Google results. I couldn't find anyone who had them beating on the quarter. But they did. Is there some fuzzy math involved? Maybe. I've heard things like they benefited from a currency exchange. I've also heard their model for paying advertisers is very complicated and can be adjusted if needed to make numbers look better. They may have used the Double Click acquisition which closed this quarter to help the numbers. Who knows? Right now it doesn't matter as people are throwing money back into the stock. I'm sure Google's management is laughing today as they have been getting beaten up in the media for the past few weeks.

We seem to be hearing the same thing from every large cap company. "International sales strong, especially from emerging Asia and Middle East." Also, very week in U.S. They are benefiting very much from the weak dollar. Although most people don't see this happening, what if the dollar strengthens? It will actually hurt these companies. Commodity prices will also fall. Look at a company like Nokia. Pretty strong sales worldwide, but pretty slow in the U.S., and they are getting nailed for being on the complete reverse end of the trade having to convert into a strong European currency. It just seems like numbers being manipulated.

Potash (POT) crashed through 200 for the first time this morning. I remember back to legendary trader Jesse Livermore's advice of when a stock breaks though a major number barrier, like 100 or 200 for the first time, it typically bolts right past it. I'm not buying the stock here, but it should be something to watch for.

Manitowoc (MTW) is back up to 39 this morning, showing further proof of the bogus downgrade earlier this week. Seems like they were trying to shake small investors out of the stock.

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