Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Stick to the Game Plan

Weak dollar plays continue to dominate. I'm not adding to any oil positions at this point, but am holding. The Fed can't strengthen the dollar just by talking about it. They are in a position where they can't afford to raise rates, but inflation is too high for comfort. So avoid financials, retailers, and consumer related stocks. Where have we heard this before?

The major indexes will be under pressure because they are still so heavily dependent on financial stocks. Last quarter earnings appeared to be the "we're not collapsing, so the stock will go up" quarter. This quarter earnings appear to be the "earnings aren't good and won't be for awhile" quarter. This is the destiny I see for financial stocks for a few quarters. Although they might get a bump here and there from being oversold or short covering, they will continue to be held down by weak earnings. This, in turn, will weight on the S&P 500. But stocks immune from these problems will go up.

Right now the bet of "short major indexes through ETF's, long stocks with strong global presence and weak dollar ties" is continuing to pay off. There will be plenty of opportunities to make money in stocks as the year progresses. Just not in all stocks (so avoid index funds right now).

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