Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Perception is NOT Reality

The market is trading in a difficult pattern right now. We're getting whipsawed each day as the hedge funds buy and sell financial stocks. That is the only thing moving the market right now. You have a major dislocation in prices vs. value right now, but that doesn't mean it will get sorted out quickly. Many oil stocks are trading at levels of when oil was $70 barrel (its currently $121), and you have financial stocks trading at levels when they still made money (and paid dividends). This dislocation is being caused by funds cycling in and out of these sectors. They carry so much weight that they can cause these imbalances. Part of me wants to buy like crazy, but I remember the quote from economist John Maynard Keynes, which said "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

My advice is stick to your convictions. If you have a well designed portfolio, and you've done research on your stocks, you'll be fine. Don't buy into the hype.

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