Friday, July 18, 2008

What Happens When Financials are Done Reporting Earnings?

The driver for the market has been earnings. Its been mostly financial earnings that the market is responding to. The companies that are performing well aren't getting much attention. So, once the under performing banks are done reporting their better than expected earnings, will the market hold up on fundamentals? Not on the fundamentals of the bank stocks. Thats why I like to focus on solid companies that are performing well.

The problem with this market is the constant rotation in and out of sectors. I can attribute it largely to hedge funds and computer based quantitative trading models. These aren't people on the other side of these trades, but computers which kick in and by or sell at given times or is certain situations arise. Thats why its so hard to hold any trend right now. Mark from "fund my mutual fund" has talked about this quite a bit. Here's a good post from his blog on this subject.

A couple stocks I'm looking at due to sector weakness:

Brazilian miner Vale (RIO). They recently made a stock placement at around $29 and the stock has traded down. They are rumored to be getting ready for a larger purchase.

XTO energy.(XTO). A great natural gas play. They've sold off with oil and nat. gas prices dropping.

I think the momentum from financials will hold up for a little while, but while wear off. Then we'll be back to oil and weak dollar plays.

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