Monday, September 15, 2008

"This Time It's Different"...

Although its seems like capital has dried up with everyone these days, if you've got some, history shows that now is the time to think about putting it to work. This is purely odds, statistics and history. Although people like to say "this time it's different", it usually isn't. History is usually a good guide for these things.

Those who cried that this crisis would happen are finally getting major airtime. Specifically NYU professor Nouriel Roubini. Six months ago, his statements sounded crazy. Today, his statements have been proved mostly true, and now he's all over the news and they're using him for ratings. Funny how things change. And all the "financial crisis bears" are running around and talking about how right they were, as they obviously feel vindicated. And of course, they're all continuing to lay it on, saying "this is just the beginning." But major market disruptions, like today, often mark significant points in the stock market (usually market bottoms). What will the bears say to that? "This time its different." There's those words again.

I'm a believer in a "reversion to the mean" in many aspects of life. Things usually aren't as good as people say, nor are they as bad as people say. The market often swings like a pendulum from euphoria to fear, and its clearly making new highs on the fear index.

I understand there are major problems going on, and I'm very, very hesitant to step in as a buyer, but I'm looking. But when this all slows up a bit, and things normalize (again, it could be awhile) stocks will rally again. And that is when the easiest gains are made, that 15% off the bottom. So stay patient, live to fight another day, don't make crazy changes to your portfolio, and realize that this time, although it feels different, it probably isn't.

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