Thursday, December 4, 2008

Economy in Trouble, Stocks to Move...Higher?

Yep, you heard it right. Economic bad news is coming in from all fronts right now, with job cuts being announced daily, as well as poor data. Since the market drop in October, the economy has pretty much frozen in a lot of areas. It will take some time to thaw, but stocks likely will be the first thing to move higher. Why? To quote Ken Fisher, "The stock market is a discounter of widely known information."

I always look at it this way: The stock market is pricing in the state of the economy around six months from now. Right now there is no sign of stabilization in the economy, so the market is still quite volatile. But while the economy might take a little while to recover, the stock market will make is quickest move as soon as it looks like things are done deteriorating.

For the first time in decades, the yield on the S&P 500 is higher than the 10 year treasury . This signifies pretty strong value in current stock prices.

The question you have to ask yourself when looking at today's prices is not will the stock market be higher in a month or two, but will it be higher in a year, or three years, or ten years? I believe the market will be significantly higher, and if you're investing with a time horizon above a couple of years, its a good time to buy.

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