Thursday, January 22, 2009

China Down, But Not Out

A lot of debate has been raised about China's economy. For the past couple of years it was a picture of robust growth. That growth has clearly slowed, due to a number of factors. The question now is what does the future look like for them? Popular economist Nouriel Roubini is negative on China:

“China is in a recession regardless of what the highly massaged official numbers claim,” Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and the chairman of consulting firm Roubini Global Economics, wrote in a note today on his Web site. “When growth is slowing down sharply the Chinese way to measure GDP is highly misleading.”

Jim Rogers is bullish on China:

Investors should buy China’s agriculture, water treatment, power generation and infrastructure stocks because the companies won’t be hurt by the nation’s slowing economy, investor Jim Rogers said in an interview today.

“There is a lot happening in China and there will be those that will hold up well,” said Rogers, who correctly predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999 and wrote books on investing including “A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World’s Greatest Market.”

Like many investors, I've been intrigued by China's growth and increased level of influence. In fact their situation is almost reverse that of the US. They are privatizing companies, while we are nationalizing them. I came across an excellent piece about China vs. the US written by Tim Swanson. I highly recommend reading it.

Long on China, Short on the United States

Roubini and Rogers commentary via Bloomberg.

Swanson Article via

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