Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Rally Coming?

I've been feeling a bear market rally for awhile, but maybe its just too obvious, and too many people are expecting it. The market is up today, but not in typical snap-back fashion that follow periods of prolonged selling. Remember last fall when the snap-back rally was up 5% and the shorts were getting killed. Not happening today. This leaves me a little worried.

I think investors have lost confidence, and have just been beaten down. This climate is typically a great buying opportunity, but man its tough out there right now. Every time I dip a toe in, I quickly get stopped out of the trade. I'm not taking any chances and hanging onto new positions if they lose money. I'm cutting them off quickly.

As much as they're trotting out a deflating economy, I think we're going to be in for some heavy inflation once the economy stabilizes. So, for the next segment, I'm looking into agriculture and food. I've never been a gold buyer, but may have to do a little of that too.

Right now, I'm looking at these names:

Potash (POT)
Mosaic (MOS)
Monsanto (MON)
Powershares Ag. Fund (DBA)

And maybe oil. I'm not hurrying here, but if you're twisting my arm:

Petrobras (PBR)
Noble (NE)
National Oilwell Varco (NOV)

No Positions in Stocks Mentioned.

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