Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Buying Natural Gas

Bought some Natural Gas (UNG) this morning. This is a value play. Crude oil has traded up off its lows, and although there is some near term pressure on oil prices, I see prices rising again. Natural Gas often trades (at least somewhat) in tandem with crude oil. Natural Gas has disconnected in the past couple of months, and I see a reversion to the mean. The gas producers are doing everything they can to get profitable, and this likely means cutting off production to level out supply and demand. If they cut off enough supply, and if we see either a hot summer or more than expected strength in the economy, gas prices are likely to respond. It can even be owned just for the bounce.

There are plenty of quesitons about Natural Gas, and especially the producers. They can't make money with gas at these prices. But thats why we buy gas itself, and not the producers. Todd Sullivan has a really good analysis of this thesis, and I'm mostly just following him here. His posts are here, and here.


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