- This year’s 31 percent decline in natural gas made it the worst performing commodity and the cheapest next to oil since the fall of the Soviet Union. That’s about to change, if history is any guide.
- Natural gas lost 72 percent in 11 months as the U.S. fell into the deepest recession in 50 years and drillers failed to idle rigs fast enough to control inventories. Stockpiles are 22 percent larger than the five-year average, the Energy Department said. Oil costs 18 times more than gas, the biggest gap since 1992, when the collapse of communism cut supplies from Russia, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
- Now, gas drillers are tightening their grip on production just as the economy shows signs of improving. The number of U.S. rigs plunged 56 percent in nine months, the steepest drop in two decades, Baker Hughes Inc. said. Gas may rise 38 percent in the second half, while oil will gain 22 percent, according to Bloomberg analyst surveys.
On the technical side, UNG continues to make lower highs which still represents a bearish trend. Volume has exploded and I'd attribute that more to the popularity of the commodity trade than a confirmed move. If you're a trader, you can move in and out of this for quick profits. If you're a value guy, you have to figure that anywhere in here is a good buying point as natural gas won't stay at these levels forever.
Another look at the chart.
No Positions, but that could change soon.