Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Shift in Sentiment

We've seen a slight shift in market sentiment in the past couple of days. The market isn't responding very well to much of anything, which is quite a contrast to the past few weeks when the market took anything as a positive.

What could be some causes? Well, for one the market isn't particularly oversold anymore. In some areas its actually overbought in my opinion. Speculative stocks (solar, commodity, global growth and/or China etc.) all have been bought up too far. I have spotted this and was going to go ahead and short Mosaic (MOS) yesterday, but hesitated (must be recency bias; everything goes up etc.). Anyway, missed about 3% yesterday, and its down 9% today. Not that important as there are a million of those types of trades.

Buying the 2x short S&P (SDS) has paid off so far, and I will probably move up my stops to protect some profits.

Keep in mind we could easily turn back into full bull mode as the funds could move in heavy to buy this dip. That's why I've been hesitant to go to heavy into shorting anything right now.

Disclosure: Long SDS

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