Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Stocks I'm Looking to Buy

I like to provide an update of my watch list from time to time, with some detail about where I'd like to enter various names. So here's what I'm looking at right now:

US Natural Gas (UNG). Anyone who has been reading the blog knows I've been in this before and watch it closely. In the short term, this is being driven by speculators and hasn't moved due to still weak fundamentals. In the coming 6 months to couple of years, I think this has major upside potential. You can trade it short term, or just buy it and hold it. I'd like to get it back near 13.50, and the chart is still pointing that way.

News Corp. (NWSA). Followed Todd Sullivan into this trade. I like the thesis on this stock has they are doing well in the face of tough times for most media. I sold it due to the 20% gain it took, but I'd love to buy at back if it falls back to around 9.00. Seth Klarman's largest holding too, I believe.

Teradata Corp. (TDC). A stock I picked up on about a month ago. Interesting data storage company that has traded at a lower multiple than many quality tech companies. Is a spin-off from a couple of years ago (click here to read my piece on why spin-offs often out-perform). It jumped following a postive earnings report, and has since had a lot of strength. I'd like to buy it near the 20 day ema of just under 22 if I can. Large holding of David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital.

Silver (SLV). I still like the case for silver. I held this fund breifly and sold for a small profit. I'd buy it back at a lower price if I can. It did recently bounce off its 20 day ema around 14.60. Click here to read my piece on silver.

RHI Entertainment (RHIE). Deep value play. Another Todd Sullivan/Seth Klarman stock. Trading for less than half of book value. This company has wide moats in the made for tv movie and miniseries industry. I'd look to buy it under 3.00.

Burlington Northern (BNI). In my opinon, the best of the rails. I like the thesis for rails in the medium to long term. Click here to read my post on rails. Warren Buffett owns 22% of the stock, and its always nice to have him behind you. Rails have jumped recently due to Washington backing of some anti-trust regulation on rails, and the prospect of "green shoots." I'd like to get BNI back around 60.

General Growth Properties (GGWPQ). Bankruptcy stock. I've been following Todd Sullivan's excellent analysis of this. I almost bought it twice around 1.00 and then William Ackman made his speech saying it is likely worth $20-30/share. Major volume poured into the stock and it jumped to around $3.00. It is slowing now at around $2.70, but I'm still conflicted here. I may buy in, and will update if I do. Keep in mind, there is the potential of total loss of the value of common shares as this stock is in chapter 11.

There are always a few others, but these are the main few I'm watching right now. Questions and/or feedback always welcome.

No current positions in names mentioned.

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