Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Sold American Railcar/Earnings Thoughts

I went ahead and sold my American Railcar (ARII) shares. Never got it to a full position, and this thing moved so quickly that it seems a little too good to be true. I bought it at 7.05 near the bottom of its range last Friday, and sold today at 8.37, for a 18.7% gain. Not bad for about 3 days. I wish they all were that easy. I'll likely get back into this stock and it could be before too long.

The Intel report was the big news today. I was impressed by their numbers, but lets face it, it wasn't anything earth shattering. The market is obviously decided to go into earnings season with low expectations and there appear to be plenty of buyers out there. I'm a little skeptical here around S&P 930. If you take a look at the chart, that was our previous high right at the end of June. If we fail to break that, I'd get bearish as we'd be continuing the pattern of lower highs and lower lowers (although it just started). This would also pretty much confirm that head-and-shoulders pattern. But....

This is earnings season, and if the market continues to react to reports the way they did Intel's, we could easily blow right through 930 and higher (heck, it could still happen today). So I urge caution here. Not a bad idea to take some profits here, but I can't blame you if you want to hold.

The earnings really start heating up tomorrow, and I'll be doing plenty of posts in the days ahead.

Disclosure: None

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