Tuesday, August 11, 2009

My Current Game Plan

As I've been outlining for a couple of weeks, there are still some good values out there. I'm still concerned we will see a meaningful correction sometime before year end. Its impossible to try to predict when, but I'm hoping to use that opportunity to take some larger positions. I've been extremely patient as of late (holding current longs, doing research but little buying). Here are a couple of stocks I'm looking to buy:

Compass Diversified Holdings (CODI). They just reported a solid quarter. They key here is that they've got the cash ready to make their next acquisition which will increase cash flow. The question now is what and when. We got some insight into the when, as the CEO said it would be accurate to expect it to happen in 2009. I see this event as being the largest near term catalyst for this stock. Its still a cheap stock and I may buy some shares without it pulling back much.

RHI Entertainment (RHIE). This is a stock that I feel scares away a lot of investors. But in listening to the conference call (the best spot for nuggets of info), they have a plan to pay down a large portion of their debt and still cash flow. Their quarterly numbers were weak, but this is a highly unique business due to their seasonality. The second half of the year should see plenty of activity for them. The stock is very cheap, and if I could get some shares under 2.00, I'd jump at the chance.

Wal Mart (WMT). I'm still interested in shares as I feel they are best positioned in this type of environment. They do well if the economy rebounds, and are somewhat insulated (especially on a relative basis) if we see a double-dip in the recession. They report this week and I won't be doing anything for sure until after that.

Loews (L). Great management. Good mix of brands. Good value on the stock here. The stock is still over 31 on the post-earnings jump. Prime example of stock I'm waiting for a pullback on, but I'd feel comfortable owning a large stake in this company.

There are a handful of others that I'm seriously pursuing, and you'll likely be hearing about those as well. Obviously I pay a lot of attention to whats happening with oil and gas too.

Again, a lot of opinions I respect have been speaking a little cautious about where we're currently trading. But like I said, there are values out there. That's what I'm working on.

Disclosure: Long UNG


Anonymous said...

What is your preferred buy price for CODI?

Michael said...

It's likely a good buy here, depending on your time horizon. The main key is I'd like to own shares before they make their next acquisition. They recently paid their distribution, so there's still time there. I'm just being a little picky to see if the market sells off a little. I'll definitely post when I buy some shares. Thanks for the comment.