Friday, January 22, 2010

Patience Paying Off

Finally starting to feel a little better about being cautious over the past few weeks.  The market has obviously changed its mood and is selling all the news out there.  Whether its low revenue numbers on earnings results, or Obama and the government announcing a new strategy with Wall St., or China, the market doesn't care right now.  We've now fallen a bit more than all those mini-dips that were swiftly bought all fall.  Now this one could end up just the same and we could see heavy buying next week.  But we just have to wait and see. 

Everybody wants a quick fix these days, and thats just not how it works.  They expect the president to have a reaction to anything that goes wrong.  I get the feel that him going after the banks was a political response to the Dems. losing that seat, and its unfortunate.  Employment is whats really hurting him politically right now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more big items tried to stimulate growth.  Not what I like to see, but like I said, everyone wants a quick fix.  If the market falls much further, they'll probably bring back the uptick rule debate and why we should outlaw short selling or leveraged ETFs. 

Meanwhile, we just look for good businesses at good prices.  I like the quote that goes something like this (Buffett may have said it) "we just wait for the money to be lying over in the corner, and we walk over and pick it up."  Probably messed it up, but you get the idea.   

Carefusion (CFN) has held up really well during the past few days.  I imagine this was largely due to the fact that there are major questions about health care reform being passed due to the Mass. election.  I liked CFN and their potential to grow earnings regardless of what does or does not pass. 

Heavy earnings coming up the next couple of weeks.  Everyone here know's I love Loews and am getting excited seeing it pull back.  There was a nice piece written at another blog I found that you can read here.  Ultimately it will come down to if Loews management can unlock the value.  There is no doubt its there.  Its a matter of if they need to spin off some assets, or buy something to call attention to themselves.  At the end of the day, they're value investors though, and they won't sell assets at low prices.  I'd say they will look to scoop up assets at a good price if they can find them.  Beyond that, they will build up cash and buy back the stock if it remains this undervalued. 

Something to think about over the weekend.  I'll probably be buying at some point next week.  Hopefully the Vikings can pull out the big win this weekend!!!

Disclosure: Long CFN


TraderMark said...

Sorry about your Vikes.

That last drive was very poor in my mind and the coaches really need to be taken to task.

#1 get the ball with 2:37 on your own 20
first play is a run... and takes up the entire 37 seconds. No urgency

#2 than another run??

#3 if not for a missed tackle on 3rd down the WR would of been stopped short of 1st down market on 30 yard line, you punt to Brees with 1:40 left in the game. Would of been a disaster

Favre bails you out, and then a nice run

#4 take a timeout, then come out of the huddle with 12 men on the field? Taking you out of FG range? That's a Detroit Lions move!

I am very curious what talk radio says in Minnestota. Maybe they blame Favre for the INT but i thought the coaching on that drive was horrendous and maybe Favre didnt have urgency at the beginning... or it was the coaches. I don't know, I though that was a very weird drive.

Michael said...

Thanks for the comment.

The decision making on the final drive was definitely questionable, but its been that way all year with the coaching staff..poor clock management is nothing new here. The 12 men on the field penalty was huge and never should have happened coming out of a time out.

Ultimately the turnovers were the difference in this game. Peterson fumbles on the 5 yard line before the half, no points. And New Orleans scores 2 tds in the second half, one off of a huge kickoff return and the second on the harvin fumble that gives them the ball at the 7 yard line. I thought the Vikes D played pretty dang good in the 2nd half.

Unfortunately, many will blame Favre for this game, and that last pick was inexcusable, but that's Favre. Without him, they wouldn't even be close to that position. I don't think any other QB would be in after that hit he took. Pretty awesome, and that's why people love him.

As a fan, its difficult, especially knowing for the most part, they outplayed New Orleans in a tough environment. I was pretty impressed by their overall preparation and effort. I'd love to see Favre come back, but who knows.

If you want to listen to the local reaction, has a live online stream.